Small deals gain momentum, mid-market remains under pressure

Every year, the M&A Monitor takes the pulse of the Belgian mergers and acquisitions market. The 13th edition, based on a survey of 158 specialists, paints a somewhat positive but nuanced picture. Key findings:

• Cautious recovery in 2025, with a clear divergence between the small segment (growth) and the mid-market (decline)
• 56% of experts expect more deals in 2026, although geopolitical tensions are again causing uncertainty
• Three out of four acquisitions create shareholder value for the buyer
• Private equity funds pay higher acquisition multiples on average than strategic buyers
• In nearly one in two deals, the final price is lower than the initial offer; ten years ago, this was just one in four.

The research was carried out by Professor Mathieu Luypaert and researchers Sarah Muller and Tom Floru from the Centre for Mergers, Acquisitions & Buyouts at Vlerick Business School, in collaboration with the Bank Van Breda, Moore, Van Olmen & Wynant and Wallonie Entreprendre.

Mathieu Luypaert, Professor of Corporate Finance, Vlerick Business School:“Each year, we focus on a specific topic in the M&A Monitor. This year, the emphasis was on financial buyers, such as private equity funds, versus strategic buyers – often industry peers. What surprised me most is that financial buyers pay higher acquisition multiples on average than strategic buyers: 7.3 times EBITDA as compared to 6.2 times.”

2025: recovery, but the mid-market is lagging behind

After a stable but historic low in 2024, the Belgian acquisition market is cautiously recovering. In the small segment, with deals below €20 million, more than half of experts are seeing an increase. These transactions are largely driven by entrepreneurs looking to retire and transfer ownership of their businesses – a structural flow that is relatively insensitive to economic cycles.

The mid-market (€20–50 million) is performing significantly less well, with nearly half of experts active in this segment reporting a decline.
Large deals, on the other hand, are benefiting from technological shifts and the pressure on companies to scale in a more challenging economic environment.

Wannes Gheysen, Partner Mid-Market M&A, Moore Corporate Finance:“Preparation and positioning matter more than timing alone in the mid-market.”

2026: positive sentiment, but geopolitics casts a shadow

Respondents were surveyed in January and February 2026, prior to the most recent geopolitical escalations. At that time, sentiment was distinctly positive:

• 56% expected more deals in 2026, with 30% anticipating growth of more than 10%
• Only 17% foresaw a decline
• Financial buyers were expected to be slightly more optimistic than strategic buyers in 2026, driven by pressure to deploy accumulated capital.

Kristoph Wauters, Head of Advisory, Bank Van Breda: “M&A activity got off to a strong start in 2026, but geopolitical tensions have recently led to renewed caution. Demographic trends, such as ageing populations, are expected to remain a key driver of small and mid-sized transactions.”

Succession drives the sell-side market

Why are entrepreneurs selling their businesses? Retirement is by far the primary driver, followed by the belief that the business will have greater potential under new ownership. AI-driven disruption and tax pressure currently play a negligible role.

Koen Hoornaert, Partner, Van Olmen & Wynant: “A large share of the transactions we are involved in are driven by succession. Many family-owned businesses seek continuity through an external buyer who can provide both capital and management expertise to support further growth.”

Three out of four acquisitions create shareholder value

Respondents estimate that 75% of all transactions create shareholder value for the buyer. This rises to 80% in the case of add-on acquisitions, where a company acquires additional businesses following the initial deal as part of a buy-and-build strategy. The trend toward more value-creating acquisitions is consistent with recent academic research: whereas M&A previously focused primarily on efficiency gains, the emphasis today is on growth and talent management.

Valuations and negotiations: the rules are changing

The average acquisition multiple remained stable at 6.4 times EBITDA (operating cash flow). However, beneath this apparent stability, negotiating power is clearly shifting toward buyers.

Comparing the 2015 and 2025 figures shows that in 49% of transactions, the final price is lower than the initial offer. Ten years ago, this was just 27%. A possible explanation: AI-supported due diligence is improving the identification of risks and strengthening the buyer’s negotiating position. Other notable figures:

• Technology is the most expensive sector, with an average multiple of 9.7
• Private equity funds pay an average of 7.3 times EBITDA, compared to 6.2 times for strategic buyers
• Banks are willing to lend more: the average leverage ratio increased from 2.9 to 3.4 times EBITDA